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Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of Vietnam from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

Over the past decades, Vietnam has significantly progressed and has transformed from being a food-insecure nation to one of the world’s leading exporters in food commodities, and from one of the world’s poorest countries to a low-middle-income country. The agriculture sector is dominated by rice and plays a vital role in food security, employment, and foreign exchange. Vietnam submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2022 based on the NDC 2020. There is a significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction, towards the long-term goals identified in Vietnam’s National Climate Change Strategy to 2025, and efforts are being made to fulfil the commitments made at COP26. The Agriculture Sector is the second-largest contributor of GHG emissions in Vietnam, accounting for 89.75 MtCO2eq, which was about 31.6 percent of total emissions in 2014. Rice cultivation is the biggest source of emissions in the agriculture sector, accounting for 49.35% of emissions from agriculture. The total GHG removal from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in 2014 was -37.54 MtCO2eq, of which the largest part was from the forest land sub-sector (35.61 MtCO2eq), followed by removal from croplands (7.31 MtCO2eq) (MONRE 2019).

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS

Behavior of private retailers in a regulated input market: An empirical analysis of the fertilizer subsidy policy in Nepal

Shriniwas Gautam Dyutiman Choudhary Dil Bahadur Rahut (2022, [Artículo])

The private sector in Nepal participates in the regulated import and distribution of three types of subsidized fertilizer. However, almost 55% of the agrovets (family-owned microenterprises) that retail agricultural inputs do not comply. Many farmers rely on the fertilizer purchased through these agrovets, including subsidized ones. There is no private sector importer of the three types of fertilizer covered by the subsidy program, which indicates that the agrovets either acquire these through leakage in the government distribution system or through illegal cross-border trade from India, both of which are considered legal noncompliance. We discern the determinants for this noncompliant behavior of agrovets using logistic regression. The results from logistic regression suggest that the agrovets that are more likely to comply are registered, have membership in business associations, and have a higher number of competitors. Those with diversified business portfolios and covering a greater number of districts are less likely to comply. Key informants, consisting of both public and private sector stakeholders, were solicited for their views on solving this noncompliant behavior. The private sector unanimously asserts the need for deregulation of fertilizer imports and the participation of agrovets in the distribution of the subsidized fertilizer. In contrast, the public sector is skeptical of the ability and trustworthiness of the private sector in the import and distribution of quality fertilizer. We propose a middle ground to mitigate private sector noncompliance and suggest a policy revisit to increase the fertilizer supply and distribution efficiency.

Fertilizer Subsidy Policy Input Retailers CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA FERTILIZERS POLICIES MARKET REGULATIONS

Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of China from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and one of the countries most affected by climate change. China's food systems are a major contributor to climate change: in 2018, China's food systems emitted 1.09 billion tons of carbondioxide equivalent (CO2eq) GHGs, accounting for 8.2% of total national GHG emissions and 2% of global emissions. According to the Third National Communication (TNC) Report, in 2010, GHG emissions from energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste accounted for 78.6%, 12.3%, 7.9%, and 1.2% of total emissions, respectively, (excluding emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). Total GHG emissions from the waste sector in 2010 were 132 Mt CO2 eq, with municipal solid waste landfills accounting for 56 Mt. The average temperature in China has risen by 1.1°C over the last century (1908–2007), while nationally averaged precipitation amounts have increased significantly over the last 50 years. The sea level and sea surface temperature have risen by 90 mm and 0.9°C respectively in the last 30 years. A regional climate model predicted an annual mean temperature increase of 1.3–2.1°C by 2020 (2.3–3.3°C by 2050), while another model predicted a 1–1.6°C temperature increase and a 3.3–3.7 percent increase in precipitation between 2011 and 2020, depending on the emissions scenario. By 2030, sea level rise along coastal areas could be 0.01–0.16 meters, increasing the likelihood of flooding and intensified storm surges and causing the degradation of wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Addressing climate change is a common human cause, and China places a high value on combating climate change. Climate change has been incorporated into national economic and social development plans, with equal emphasis on mitigation and adaptation to climate change, including an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021. The following overarching targets are included in China's updated NDC: • Peaking carbon dioxide emissions “before 2030” and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. • Lowering carbon intensity by “over 65%” by 2030 from the 2005 level. • Increasing forest stock volume by around 6 billion cubic meters in 2030 from the 2005 level. The targets have come from several commitments made at various events, while China has explained very well the process adopted to produce its third national communication report. An examination of China's NDC reveals that it has failed to establish quantifiable and measurable targets in the agricultural sectors. According to the analysis of the breakdown of food systems and their inclusion in the NDC, the majority of food system activities are poorly mentioned. China's interventions or ambitions in this sector have received very little attention. The adaptation component is mentioned in the NDC, but is not found to be sector-specific or comprehensive. A few studies have rated the Chinese NDC as insufficient, one of the reasons being its failure to list the breakdown of each sector's clear pathway to achieving its goals. China's NDC lacks quantified data on food system sub-sectors. Climate Action Trackers' "Insufficient" rating indicates that China's domestic target for 2030 requires significant improvements to be consistent with the Paris Agreement's target of 1.5°C temperature limit. Some efforts are being made: for example, scientists from the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (IEDA-CAAS) have developed methods for calculating GHG emissions from livestock and poultry farmers that have been published as an industrial standard by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, PRC (Prof Hongmin Dong, personal communication) but this still needs to be consolidated and linked to China’s NDC. The updated Nationally Determined Contributions fall short of quantifiable targets in agriculture and food systems as a whole, necessitating clear pathways. China's NDC is found to be heavily focused on a few sectors, including energy, transportation, and urban-rural development. The agricultural sectors' and food systems' targets are vague, and China's agrifood system has a large carbon footprint. As a result, China should focus on managing the food system (production, processing, transportation, and food waste management) to reduce carbon emissions. Furthermore, China should take additional measures to make its climate actions more comprehensive, quantifiable, and measurable, such as setting ambitious and clear targets for the agriculture sector, including activity-specific GHG-reduction pathways; prioritizing food waste and loss reduction and management; promoting sustainable livestock production and low carbon diets; reducing chemical pollution; minimizing the use of fossil fuel in the agri-system and focusing on developing green jobs, technological advancement and promoting climate-smart agriculture; promoting indigenous practices and locally led adaptation; restoring degraded agricultural soils and enhancing cooperation and private partnership. China should also prepare detailed NDC implementation plans including actions and the GHG reduction from conditional targets.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS FOOD WASTES

Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of Kenya from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

Agriculture is one of the fundamental pillars of the 2022–2027 Bottom-up Economic Transformation Plan of the Government of Kenya for tackling complex domestic and global challenges. Kenya's food system is crucial for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Kenya has prioritized aspects of agriculture, food, and land use as critical sectors for reducing emissions towards achieving Vision 2030's transformation to a low-carbon, climate-resilient development pathway. Kenya's updated NDC, as well as supporting mitigation and adaptation technical analysis reports and other policy documents, has identified an ambitious set of agroecological transformative measures to promote climate-smart agriculture, regenerative approaches, and nature-positive solutions. Kenya is committed to implementing and updating its National Climate Change Action Plans (NCCAPs) to present and achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets and resilience outcomes that it has identified.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS FOOD WASTES

Review of Nationally Determined Contributions (NCD) of Colombia from the perspective of food systems

Tek Sapkota (2023, [Documento de trabajo])

Food is a vital component of Colombia's economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in the country is severe. The effects have resulted in decreased production and in the productivity of agricultural soil. Desertification processes are accelerating and intensifying. Colombia's government formally submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) on December 29, 2020. This paper examines Colombia's NDC from the standpoint of the food system.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOOD SYSTEMS LAND USE CHANGE AGRICULTURE POLICIES DATA ANALYSIS FOOD WASTES

Analyzing antifragility among smallholder farmers in Bihar, India: An assessment of farmers' vulnerability and the strengths of positive deviants

Roos Adelhart Toorop Santiago Lopez-Ridaura ML JAT Deepak Bijarniya Jeroen Groot (2023, [Artículo])

Farmers around the world are increasingly vulnerable: climate variability is identified as the primary stressor, but unfavorable biophysical circumstances and disturbances in the socioeconomic domain (labor dynamics and price volatility) also affect farm management and production. To deal with these disturbances, adaptations are recognized as essential. Antifragility acknowledges that adaptations and volatility are inherent characteristics of complex systems and abandons the idea of returning to the pre-disturbance system state. Instead, antifragility recognizes that disturbances can trigger reorganization, enabling selection and removal of weaker system features and allowing the system to evolve toward a better state. In this study, we assessed the vulnerability of different types of smallholder farms in Bihar, India, and explored the scope for more antifragile farming systems that can 'bounce back better' after disturbances. Accumulation of stocks, creation of optionality (i.e., having multiple options for innovation) and strengthening of farmer autonomy were identified as criteria for antifragility. We had focus group discussions with in total 92 farmers and found that most expressed themselves to be vulnerable: they experienced challenges but had limited adaptive capacity to change their situation. They mostly made short-term decisions to cope with or mitigate urgent challenges but did not engage in strategic planning driven by longer-term objectives. Instead, they waited for governmental support to improve their livelihoods. Despite being confronted with similar challenges, four positive deviant farmers showed to be more antifragile: their diverse farming systems were abundant in stocks and optionality, and the farmers were distinguished in terms of their autonomy, competence, and connectedness to peers, the community, and markets. To support antifragility among regular farmers, adaptations at policy level may be required, for example, by shifting from a top-down toward a bottom-up adaptation and innovation regime where initiative and cooperation are encouraged. With a more autonomous orientation, farmers' intrinsic motivation is expected to increase, enabling transitions at the farm level. In this way, connected systems can be developed which are socioeconomically and biophysically adaptive. When practices, knowledge, and skills are continuously developed, an antifragile system with ample stocks and optionality may evolve over time.

Autonomy Adaptive Capacity Smallholder Farmers CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA POLICIES SMALLHOLDERS AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES