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Offshore wind energy climate projection using UPSCALE climate data under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

MARKUS SEBASTIAN GROSS (2016, [Artículo])

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)- Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location. © Copyright 2016 Gross, Magar. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reprod

atmosphere, climate change, Europe, Mexico, sampling, time series analysis, university, weather, wind power, climate, risk, theoretical model, wind, Climate, Models, Theoretical, Risk, Wind CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA Y DEL ESPACIO OCEANOGRAFÍA OCEANOGRAFÍA

Multicriteria assessment of alternative cropping systems at farm level. A case with maize on family farms of South East Asia

Santiago Lopez-Ridaura (2023, [Artículo])

CONTEXT: Integration of farms into markets with adoption of maize as a cash crop can significantly increase income of farms of the developing world. However, in some cases, the income generated may still be very low and maize production may also have strong negative environmental and social impacts. OBJECTIVE: Maize production in northern Laos is taken as a case to study how far can farms' performance be improved with improved crop management of maize with the following changes at field level: good timing and optimal soil preparation and sowing, allowing optimal crop establishment and low weed infestation. METHODS: We compared different farm types' performance on locally relevant criteria and indicators embodying the three pillars of sustainability (environmental, economic and social). An integrated assessment approach was combined with direct measurement of indicators in farmers' fields to assess eleven criteria of local farm sustainability. A bio-economic farm model was used for scenario assessment in which changes in crop management and the economic environment of farms were compared to present situation. The farm model was based on mathematical programming maximizing income under constraints related to i) household composition, initial cash and rice stocks and land type, and ii) seasonal balances of cash, labour and food. The crop management scenarios were built based on a diagnosis of the causes of variations in the agronomic and environmental performances of cropping systems, carried out in farmers' fields. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that moderate changes in crop management on maize would improve substantially farm performance on 4 to 6 criteria out of the 11 assessed, depending on farm types. The improved crop management of maize had a high economic attractiveness for every farm type simulated (low, medium and high resource endowed farms) even at simulated production costs more than doubling current costs of farmers' practices. However, while an improvement of the systems performance was attained in terms of agricultural productivity, income generation, work and ease of work, herbicide leaching, improved soil quality and nitrogen balance, trade-offs were identified with other indicators such as erosion control and cash outflow needed at the beginning of the cropping season. SIGNIFICANCE: Using farm modelling for multicriteria assessment of current and improved maize cropping systems for contrasted farm types helped capture main opportunities and constraints on local farm sustainability, and assess the trade-offs that new options at field level may generate at farm level.

Bio-Economic Farm Model Smallholder Farms CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA CASH CROPS INDICATORS SMALLHOLDERS CROPPING SYSTEMS MAIZE

Los valores egocéntricos desfavorecen el comportamiento pro-ambiental de los guías de buceo en el Parque Nacional Arrecifes de Cozumel

The egocentric values disfavor the pro-environmental behavior of the diving guides in the Arrecifes de Cozumel National Park

SANDRA BEATRIZ CHAN CHAN AURORA IRMA MAYNEZ GUADERRAMA ALEJANDRO LUIS COLLANTES CHAVEZ COSTA LUIS CARLOS SANTANDER BOTELLO (2019, [Artículo])

El buceo como actividad turística ha potencializado la economía, pero también ha impactado a las zonas arrecifales. Durante el buceo, el guía es el principal actor en la protección del ambiente marino, pues en él recae el control de las actividades realizadas por los buzos. En esta investigación se analiza la relación entre los valores, creencias y normas sobre la intensión que tienen los guías de buceo por conservar el ambiente marino. El estudio se abordó a través de la teoría de Valores, Creencias y Normas (VCN) y fue analizado a través de modelos de ecuaciones estructurales con el método de Partial Least Squares. Se confirma la causalidad del modelo VCN y se identifica que la valoración de los recursos marinos podría estar influenciada por los valores egocéntricos lo cual no permitió la concepción de una intención de un comportamiento que sea favorable.

Diving as a touristic activity has boosted the economy, but it has also impacted the reef areas. During this activity, the guide is the main actor in the protection of the marine environment, since he has the control of the activities carried out by the divers. This research analyzes the relationship between values, beliefs and norms about the intension of diving guides to preserve the marine environment. The study was approached through the theory of Values, Beliefs and Norms (VCN) and was analyzed through structural equation models with the method of Partial Least Squares. The causality of the VCN model is confirmed, and it is identified that the valuation of the marine resources could be influenced by the egocentric values, which did not allow the conception of an intention of a favorable behavior.

CIENCIAS AGROPECUARIAS Y BIOTECNOLOGÍA Intención Área natural protegida Problemáticas ambientales Actividad turística Intention Protected areas Environmental issues Tourism

Estudio de persistencia de la sequía en el norte y centro de México

ISRAEL VELASCO VELASCO Eduardo Alexis Cervantes Carretero DAVID ORTEGA GAUCIN (2013, [Documento de trabajo])

Tabla de contenido: Introducción – Antecedentes – Conceptos y enfoques de la proyección hidrológica a futuro: modelo autorregresivo, modelo de medias móviles, modelo autorregresivo de media móvil – Índices de estado – Índice hidrológico de sequía – Resultados – Conclusiones y recomendaciones.

En el acontecer natural hidrometeorológico, la estimación de eventos futuros tiene un elevado nivel de incertidumbre, tanto más grande en cuanto más a futuro. Sin embargo, algunos de estos fenómenos –la lluvia y el escurrimiento superficial-, pueden mostrar un cierto nivel de persistencia, entendido el término como la continuación de condiciones iguales o similares o del mismo tipo, lo cual se puede tratar con algunas técnicas estadístico-matemáticas, para intentar estimar su comportamiento futuro. Este trabajo incursiona sobre la estimación de la persistencia hidrológica, como un elemento de posible aplicación para apoyar la formulación de escenarios de sequía. Dicho trabajo tiene como fin estudiar, bajo diversos enfoques (Hurst, índices de severidad...), el fenómeno de la persistencia de las sequías y aplicarla a series hidrometeorológicas en alguna cuenca del norte y centro de México.

Introducción – Antecedentes – Conceptos y enfoques de la proyección hidrológica a futuro: modelo autorregresivo, modelo de medias móviles, modelo autorregresivo de media móvil – Índices de estado – Índice hidrológico de sequía – Resultados – Conclusiones y recomendaciones.

Sequía Fenómeno de El Niño Corrientes cálidas Corrientes frías Series hidrometeorológicas Informes de proyectos Presa Lázaro Cárdenas, Durango CIENCIAS FÍSICO MATEMÁTICAS Y CIENCIAS DE LA TIERRA

Análisis de velocidad de soldadura robotizada para proceso MIG en acero1045 AISI

Carlos Eduardo Hernández Acero (2022, [Tesis de maestría])

Esta investigación denominada “análisis de velocidad de soldadura robotizada para proceso MIG en acero 1045 AISI” busca el desarrollo de un modelo matemático que permita, mediante parámetros conocidos, el cálculo de la penetración de soldadura en piezas unidas con proceso Metal Inert Gas (MIG). El objetivo se centra en buscar la combinación de valores paramétricos para la velocidad de soldadura, el voltaje y la corriente, los que se obtienen mediante la aplicación de un diseño experimental, que, ejecutadas en el proceso, pueda lograr una penetración de soldadura aceptable para la unión de la pieza. El modelo de superficie de respuesta aplicado fue un diseño de experimentos 2k con diseño central compuesto, y posteriormente el modelo se utilizó para estimar la velocidad de soldadura. Este diseño de experimentos se ejecutó por medio del programa estadístico Minitab versión 17. (Hernández Acero et al., 2022). Una vez teniendo la penetración de soldadura deseada en la pieza, se puede calcular la velocidad de soldadura necesaria para el cálculo de tiempo ciclo y utilizar los parámetros definidos de corriente y voltaje. Los valores de estos factores serán útiles para comenzar la programación del robot ya con la celda funcional y reducir el tiempo de arranque en automático (Hernández Acero et al., 2022).

This research, named “robotic welding speed analysis for MIG process in 1045 AISI steel”, seeks to develop a mathematical model that allow, through know parameters, the calculation of welding penetration in parts joined with Metal Inert Gas (MIG) process. The objective is focused on finding the combination of parametric values for robot welding speed, voltage and current, which are obtained through the application of a design of experiments, which, executed in the process, can achieve an acceptable welding penetration for the union of the part. The response surface model applied was a 2k design of experiments with central composite design, and subsequently the model was used to estimate the welding speed. This design of experiments was obtained using the statistical software Minitab version 17. (Hernández Acero et al., 2022). Once having the desired welding penetration in the part, it can calculate the welding speed necessary for the cycle time calculation and use the defined parameters of current and voltage to start programming the robot with the functional cell and reduce the time of startup (Hernández Acero et al., 2022).

Soldadura MIG Penetración Tiempo ciclo Velocidad de soldadura MIG welding Penetration Cycle time Welding speed INGENIERÍA Y TECNOLOGÍA CIENCIAS TECNOLÓGICAS OTRAS ESPECIALIDADES TECNOLÓGICAS OTRAS OTRAS